School Plans for "Growth". But Enrollment declining - not Rising.
More deception as Bartow School Board avoids Tax Hike Limits
By David McKalip, M.D.
The Bartow County School Board has always said they need to plan for growth in Student enrollment. They have used this excuse for years to justify their major increase in property taxes (all riding the wave of paper-value of homes).
This argument was used again in the Bartow County School Board meeting on 1/13 (Video of meeting here - starts at 40 minutes and ends at 2:57). (If that video link doesn’t work, go to the Board agenda page and open video from 1/13).
However, the rate of school enrollment is not going up. School enrollment is going down. In fact, the number of students enrolled in Bartow County Schools has still not recovered to it’s 2008 peak for this century (14,746). In 2008, the number of students was 14,746, but it is now at 14,028. (see above figure and the data at the bottom of this post obtained from the school system).
Not only is school enrollment actually declining, but the projected “Growth” is not materializing as expected. Read on….
School Growth Already Missing Projections
The school system and most Board members love to forecast growth, but that growth never seems to materialize in the actual classroom. This sort of faulty projection was used by Superintendent Terza to say that the Bartow school system could need another high school in another ten years (Video, time point 2:46).
“…When Bartow County has to build our next high school - and the way we are growing we can definitely anticipate building a high school in ten years….”.
Superintendent Terza offering a projection on growth that is already failing.
However, their plans for growth are already off track. They base the growth projections on a paid report from consultants “Education Planners” that was provided to them in the winter of 2003. However the consultants are already wrong in their projections! (This report was obtained by Dr. McKalip for the Bartow Freedom Coalition).
For instance, in 2023, the expensive consultants forecast that all the Bartow County High schools were projected to have a total enrollment of 4,312 this year. However, the current high school enrollment is actually 4,236 for the 2024-2025 school year. These figures show the very poor reliability of growth projections, even a year after the consultants did the report! They have 76 fewer High School students this year, than they were expecting (see “projections” figure above).
The projections are also wrong for K-5 and grades 6-8. The K-5 enrollment for this 2024-2025 school year is 6,052. But they were expecting 6,309. For Grades 6-8, they were expecting 3,131 students, but in reality they have only 2,996. Again, this is only the first year of the projection - the easiest year to hit! They missed it.
The Superintendent and the School Board members supporting opting out of the HB581 Home Value Limit are not using honest information. They cannot be trusted when they claim they need more money for growth.
Come to the School Board meeting on Tuesday 1/21 at 5:30 pm at Gilreath Rd1 and let the School Board members know that they are expected to operate based on reliable numbers, honesty and in support of the Taxpayers. They should NOT opt-out of the HB581 limit on residential property tax hikes.
Come to the BARTOW County School Board Meetings
Demand that they opt in to the state law allowing homestead value to go up no higher than state inflation.
Demand that they NOT adopt a sales tax to increase their revenue (in any case).
Insist that they cut spending, shrink administrative bloat and focus on education only.
Advise that you will will actively supporting a candidate against them when they run again if they choose to opt out of the homestead tax hike limitation.
MEETING TIMES (all at Bartow School System Admin building, 65 Gilreath Road, Cartersville).
Please email tanya.rucker@bartow.k12.ga.us or call 770-606-5800, Ext. 3838 and speaking to Tanya Rucker if you have questions or would like to sign up to speak before the meeting. However, at the first public meeting, it was clarified that people will NOT be required to sign up before a 15 minute deadline. But please sign up before the meeting starts.
Tuesday, January 21, 11:30 am
Monday, January 27, 2025 6 pm
ALSO - please email your School Board members and let them know they should NOT opt out of the Tax hike limit passed by voters and approved by the legislators.
tony.ross@bartow.k12.ga.us; darla.williams@bartow.k12.ga.us; matt.shultz@bartow.k12.ga.us; butch.emerson@bartow.k12.ga.us; sharon.viktora@bartow.k12.ga.us
David. I understood and concur with most of what you are encouraging people to do at the meeting. I wanted to understand better what you meant by insisting the schools "focus on education"
What are the extraneous things you feel like the schools are focusing on?